Today BioPorto released its Q1 figures. Nothing much was expected, and nothing much was indeed the outcome.  I will, as always,  start with focusing on the area(s) that are disappointing. But don’t despair yet – hopefully I’ll end on a lighter note

If we look at the turnover – it was perhaps in accordance with the company’s own expectations, but I think it’s safe to say it fell short of what most of us expected. quote:

The NGAL Test is being tried out by many different hospitals, and sales for routine use have only just begun. Sales of the immunoassay in Q1 were DKK 518,000, on a par with the company’s expectations.

unquote:

However – this is not the expected growth development Q-o-Q growth that we have (rightfully so or not) expected – it’s actually quite flat.. Bioporto adresses this themselves:  Sales (of NGAL-Test) are at the same level as the two previous quarters, which reflects the fact that the immunoassay is still undergoing technical and clinical validation and that its use in routine diagnostics is still limited. There has been a sizeable increase in total sales of NGAL products (66%) compared to Q1 2011, and sales of NGAL products now constitute roughly 40% of total revenue. The use of NGAL immunoassays for carrying out studies and clinical validations continues to increase.

BioPorto indicates in the statement, that turnover is not expected to rise significantly until end of the year. This means that it will not be the proceeds of the NGAL test that will carry the company through most of 2012.  Therefore it is also slightly disturbing that the turnover of the other products is reduced by more than 50%.

In the quarterly there is no explanation as to why this is the case –

http://www.bioporto.com/investors__1/announcements/2012/09_interim_report_q1_2012

On the more positive side – validation at Hvidovre and subsequently Skejby) two of Denmarks leading Hospitals is well under way, and the Test is expected to be introduced into routine diagnosis after completion.

The recently added aquisition by Abbott of AP214 from Danish Action Pharma is a clear indiication of the focus on AKI.

More studies are coming out praising NGAL as a early marker – one such has been described in detail here on Medicoinvestor, Dr. Lippi’s analysis of different tests on various machinery. http://medicoinvestor.com/the-complete-evaluation-of-ngal-test-on-bc-5822.html

Registration of the Test is now completed in Canada – this is very positive – especially when you look at another report  http://medicoinvestor.com/rapid-expansion-of-ngal-test-in-coming-years.html

Further the long and tiresome case against Pfadia is reaching its final stage, verdict expected mid june. BioPorto is generally quite upbeat at to the result of the verdict. (but then again – they were of the same opinion before meeting at the OD :( )

The main issue – the revokation of the cut-off patent – is as we all know, appealed. I have learned that the one of the 3 parties at the OD were indeed an Assistant – that was summoned only a few days before the proceedings and who had limited knowledge of the subject. This could very well be the reason for the strange clause in the “Grounds for…” where the OD denies to discuss statisticals…(!!!)  probably/possibly/perhaps  because the assistant had not had sufficient time to read up on the subject. Høiberg are – after receiving the grounds – even more certain that BioPorto will prevail

Turnoverwise the company reiterates its forecast. In 2012, BioPorto expects revenues from product sales to grow to DKK 25–30 million, and sales of The NGAL Test are expected to exceed DKK 10 million. (If I remember correctly then the word exceed is new)

BUT….What is probably of most interest to the Shareholders is this : Since the launch of The NGAL Test, several of the largest analyzer suppliers have taken an interest in distributing the immunoassay. Negotiations are in progress with several global and regional analyzer suppliers and the first collaboration is expected to be established in Q2.

So BioPorto maintains that at least 1 (one) global distribution-agreement will be signed before june 31st 2012. I can hardly wait…. :)

 

 

 

About Stengaard

BioPorto investor from way back when... I've invested in BioPorto ever since they made their debut on the danish stock exchange, it been a looooong journey with many obstacles. But well worth it all if Bioporto maintains their patent after the proceedings in 2014, and enters into agreements with Global Distributors in 2012 and 2013 If not, then it'll take another xx.years :)

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