Stengaard
9:41 PM
after looking rather carefully at Abbotts “statement” to EPO – I have to conclude – there is nothing new… its more or less the same arguments that was presented the last time they lost…
Mr. FillandKill
10:01 PM
Mr. FillandKill
10:05 PM
The first link is a similar case, where Abbott is the opponent, latest event is date of oral proceedings, and also, a lot of uploads from the opponent, – 2. link, 298 cases, where Abbott is the opponent, is currently due at the EPO.. Abbott must be a bit retarded, as they seem to come in second, on so many patent applications
Mr. FillandKill
10:07 PM
does anyone knows the statistics, if they are currently having 298 cases where they oppose, how many have they won so far? -i know they say 1/3 bl.a. bl.a. -But Abbott seem a bit aggressive when they oppose, i would like to know their statistic
Stengaard
10:30 PM
its a habit for Abbott to be an opponent – and losing as well
Guest Ryan
10:36 PM
HI Stengaard
Stengaard
10:36 PM
Hi Ryan …
Mr. FillandKill
10:36 PM
well..  guess if they win just a few percent of the cases, then that willl pay up for the rest.. – Don’t think you should be intimidated by the fact that they seek annullment of BioPorto´s NGAL patent in specific, i guess it´s just theyre way of doing business
Guest Ryan
10:37 PM
So you seem to think Abbott is presenting arguments previously brought forward
in the same case? Which was evaluated and denied?
Stengaard
10:38 PM
Mr. Fill  – well I guess they just see that as “just another day at the office”
Ryan – I don’t have the specifics at hand – but it looks to me as they are flogging the same dead horse
Guest Ryan
10:40 PM
Well if they have presented the same arguments earlier in the process/on this exact case to no avail surely that’s a positive sign.
Stengaard
10:40 PM
but – I would probably do the same if I was in Abbotts chair – given that the potential worldmarket is enormous.  Abbott only need to win once (or so they think)
Guest Ryan
10:41 PM
Of course, just trying to grasp how strong their case is, not easy for layman,
Stengaard
10:42 PM
not easy for experts either (I don’t consider myself anything but a laymans layman)
Guest Ryan
10:42 PM
Reading through these submisson from each party you easily get convinced both ways, and I would think the stockprice would take a hit.
Stengaard
10:43 PM
if the patent is sent back to examination – I could also see the stock tumble… anything from 25-50%
Mr. FillandKill
10:43 PM
Dont think they have considered not filing the opposition
Stengaard
10:44 PM
aRyan – you are right – seen from another perspective the case  looks entirely different
Given the amount of money they have invested in marketing their own heterogenous NGAL test, (based on the now revoked patent of CCH) – I would do exactly the same.
They are no worse of if they lose this is a classic Goliath vs David
Mr. FillandKill
10:47 PM
what exactly happens if the patent is revoked.. I guess the price on NGAL takes a hit, and distribution agreements only favour time to market, until the big companies have theyre own..
ndrs
10:47 PM
Of course, the potential reward for them is tremendous compared to the small costs of messing about with the EPO and BioPorto.
ndrs
10:49 PM
If the patent is deemed to be rexaminated the share prirce will undoubtedly take a massive hit – and the hit is likely to be be harder than the situation warrants.
Stengaard
10:49 PM
Well – if the NGAL patent is sent back – then BioPorto will appeal that decision :) (I assume).. If Abbott are the ONLY ones (together with Alere) who will have a marketable test (I assume they will try to revitalize the CCH patent) then the price of the test will MUCH higher…   but I agree with Ndrs – this is no time to have a marginaccount stacked with BioPorto
Mr. FillandKill
10:51 PM
the conclusion must be, not to be frightened because of the size of Abbott, because this is what they do, at all times..
ndrs
10:52 PM
A couple of reassuring words from the CEO would do, eventhough the share price held it’s own reasonably well today.
Stengaard
10:52 PM
well – one should always take one opponents seriously – and Abbott is a formidable adversary
Normally I would tend to agree with you on some calming comments from the CEO, BUT I guess by not saying anything – they convey the message of “no worries”
Mr. FillandKill
10:54 PM
will there be any problems for BioPorto in distributing the NGAL test, if the patent is revoked? I think Thea mentioned that if they had no patent, then the market would just be open for everyone, not just Alere / Abbott
Stengaard
10:55 PM
If the NGAL patent is revoked – then Abbott and Alere can distribute their test freely without paying anything to BioPorto.
They might still want to help CCH in getting their patent back – because that way they could corner the market
Remember that the Columbia Univ. / CCH patent was given exclusiveluy to Alere / Abbott
ndrs
10:56 PM
Yes, market open, BioPorto with a nice headstart, but competing with major players with limited cash.
Mr. FillandKill
10:56 PM
exactly, but BioPorto would still be on the market, with the best Ngal test..
Stengaard
10:57 PM
for a limited time only..
Mr. FillandKill
10:59 PM
unfortunately…. but I guess time to market means something  as well, im thinking Siemens/Roche etc. – problem is, how the deal should be made, and the price of the test/patent situation..
ndrs
11:00 PM
The patent has been analyzed in great detail for several years with Abbott and co. pulling all kind of stunts and BioPorto emerging as the winners – and according to the CEO BioPorto has had the option to sign agreements all along. But still hard to rest easy. It all just sounds so basic, like something the EPO would have decided on a long time ago – does the cut-off hold up? That’s the very basis of the patent they granted and re-examined etc
Stengaard
11:01 PM
I wholeheartedly agree – Abbott is a worthy adversary – with a bag full of dirty tricks :)
Mr. FillandKill
11:01 PM
you dont think that it means that BioPorto have had the chance of signing exclusively with Abbott…
Stengaard
11:03 PM
Fill, before they changed strategy – and decided to bring the NGAL test to the market themselves, that was commonly believed to the topic of discussions with Abbott
ndrs
11:03 PM
Which indicates BioPorto has a rather strong case.
Mr. FillandKill
11:03 PM
I wonder how much it would meen to Abbott, if they hold exclusive rights for their own Ngal test, and the sale of the Architect, if Ngal made Guidelines..
Stengaard
11:04 PM
according to Thea – they just kept changing the gameplan – hoping that BioP would eventuelly just give in
 imagine having the exclusive rights worldwide – and the only machinery it would work on, that worth billions
ndrs
11:05 PM
Hopefully the CEO did well to reject those contracts and haven’t bitten over more than she can chew – it’s definitely a big boys game considering the massive potential.
Stengaard
11:06 PM
its a comfort that Mariann Weile is on the board – she is rumoured to be one tough cookie…
Mr. FillandKill
11:06 PM
does anyone here knows why Abbott decided to develop a NGAL heterogeneous test? that, by the way only work on theyre own machinery… I guess its the exclusive rights Abbott are fighting for
ndrs
11:07 PM
Sten: The board looks strong on paper, I hope they earn do some work and not just talk on the phone 15 mins a month like many others :)
Stengaard
11:09 PM
at the time the heterogenous NGAL test was the only option
ndrs – we have to bear in mind that the opponents are no sissies either :)
we sometimes tend to believe were only up against Abbott – but there are 4 opponents – I can understand Alere – but the others ?
ndrs
11:14 PM
What ever happened to the Phadia-patent?
Stengaard
11:15 PM
its still there… but expiring in 2015 – if the courtcase isn’t settled
ndrs
11:16 PM
They did object at some point as they think BioPorto violates their patent
Mr. FillandKill
11:16 PM
Yes… guess you are right, allthough I have a hard time imagining that they couldnt make a fully automated test at that time.. though i remember Sentinel had some news in 2009, where they came up with the Latex technology.. after Abbott had started develop
ndrs
11:16 PM
Phadia was sold to Thermo Fischer in 2011
Mr. FillandKill
11:18 PM
If you see the first link I found today, then Abbott and 2 other companies opposed, looks like a strategy, to find others.. I mean, if you scratct my back  mine, I’ll scratch yours:-)
Stengaard
11:18 PM
yep – they bought Phadia… At I time I was convinced that Thermo (via Nunc in Rosklide) were to manifacture the test… Imagine the irony of that – if it was the case
Mr. FillandKill
11:19 PM
:) My best guess is that it is Sentinel http://www.sentinel.it/uk/laboratory/imm…
Stengaard
11:20 PM
didn’t Sentinel buy Alexis Shield ?  War makes strange bedfellows…
Mr. FillandKill
11:21 PM
Sentinel? have no idea, but I remember that you talked about Alexis Shields someyears ago.. Sentinel had some news some time in 2009, shortly before that BioPorto changed their strategy, that they had succeeded with the latex technology
ndrs
11:22 PM
Well they are messing about with NGAL
Stengaard
11:25 PM
almost every company of a decent size is involved with NGAL .. Whether it be openly or hidden
Mr. FillandKill
11:25 PM
Thermo distribute for BioPorto http://bioporto.com/how_to_buy/united_st… but maybe that is not all they do
Stengaard
11:27 PM
That is one thing I don’t understand – why not go public with the name of the  manufacturer ?
ndrs
11:27 PM
That’s right they are in bed together, bodes well for the Phadia patent. TF definitely is a major player.
Mr. FillandKill
11:28 PM
well.. my guess is that it isnt BioPorto´s call, if it was Sentinel, then maybe a conflict og Abbott interest
ndrs
11:29 PM
They want to be anonymous for some reason, I would think the partner is DAKO, but hope not as they seem to be on the lazy side in relation to NGAL.
Stengaard
11:29 PM
Well you could be right… on the other hand – its impossible to find a partner that isn’t otherwise connected as well
I guess its safe to say that we are not overly impressed with DAKO
Mr. FillandKill
11:30 PM
nope.. but try take a look at this one, if say i was right in Sentinel http://www.sentinel.it/uk/news/company.a…
Mr. FillandKill
11:32 PM
dont know.. guess everybody, incl. CEO, have had a belief that things went a lot faster..
ndrs
11:33 PM
So NGAL is a marker for just about everything, I don’t know if that’s a good thing.
Would think that makes a cut-off for AKI essential.
Stengaard
11:35 PM
I guess it is – in a way – because it makes it extremely difficult or have a low cutoff…
well – only 9 days in suspension… good night to you Gentlemen
ndrs
11:36 PM
Sure, if various other illnessses and cancers don’t cause the levels to spike in the same region.
Mr. FillandKill
11:37 PM
its not.. another good reason to why the cut offs are neccesary, to distinguish different kinds of illness
ndrs
11:37 PM
Hopefully EPO’s OD agrees that BioPorto have the right cut-offs. And they don’t all of the sudden decides it’s not patentable.
Mr. FillandKill
11:38 PM
hear hear, lets hope they are not all woman, they have some historie of changing theyre minds..
ndrs
11:38 PM
Sten: Before you go, have you ever discussed with BioPorto wether their previous experiences dealing with NGAL gives them any advantage in developing kits to determine eg cancers?
Stengaard
11:40 PM
nope… I don’t think there will be any other development than the present NGAL test – but on the other hand – I doubt they would tell me :)
ndrs
11:40 PM
Could you not find a cut-off for a certain other disease if one exists and patent that, diagnose using the same test?
Mr. FillandKill
11:40 PM
its called off label:-)
btw, I thinkt the sale ” Off Label” , could be major also… given all those various studies
Mr. FillandKill
11:50 PM
is it just my opinion, or is this patent more valueable than the cut off patent? https://register.epo.org/espacenet/appli… – allthough its highly unlikely that this will be granted..
ndrs
11:52 PM
Test-follow-up-patent, if they don’t get it hopefully no one else will
Mr. FillandKill
11:53 PM
if they dont get it, noone else will, that must be the idea.. but a nice one to have, and a new round with Abbott
lets make some millions before the next round:-)

About Stengaard

BioPorto investor from way back when... I've invested in BioPorto ever since they made their debut on the danish stock exchange, it been a looooong journey with many obstacles. But well worth it all if Bioporto maintains their patent after the proceedings in 2014, and enters into agreements with Global Distributors in 2012 and 2013 If not, then it'll take another xx.years :)

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